Journal of FARM SCIENCES, Vol 21, No 1 (2008)

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Markov Chain Model Probability of Dry, Wet Weeks and Statistical Analysis of Weekly Rainfall for Agricultural Planning at Bangalore

G.V. Srinisareddy, S.R. Bhaskar, R.C. Purohit, A.K. Chittora

Abstract


For successful agricultural management and planning of soil and water conservation measures it is necessary to know the sequence of dry and wet periods along with onset and withdrawal of rainy season. In this study Markov Chain Model has been extensively used to study spell distribution. For this purpose a week period was considered as the optimum length of time. The present study has been carried out to find the probabilities of occurrence of dry and wet weeks, onset and withdrawal of rainy season and weekly analysis of rainfall for Bangalore region. The successive dry weeks hint for the need of supplemental irrigations and moisture conservation practices whereas, successive wet weeks gives an idea of excessive runoff water availability for rainwater harvesting and to take up suitable measures to control soil erosion. Higher values of Coefficient of Variation of weekly rainfall indicate the erratic distribution of rainfall. The average annual rainfall of GKVK campus, Bangalore was found to be 923.9 mm and Coefficient of Variation (CV) of 25.4%. The data on onset and withdrawal rainy season indicated that the monsoon starts effectively from 24th SMW (11 - 17th June) and remains active up to 45th SMW (5 - 11th November). During rainy season the probability of occurrence of wet week is more than 35% except during 25th - 27th SMW and 44th  - 48th SMW. During rainy season the mean weekly rainfall is found to be more than 40 mm during 36th - 41st SMW and found to be less than 20 mm during 20th SMW, 25th - 27th SMW and 44th - 48th SMW. The results through analysis have been used for agricultural planning at Bangalore region.

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