Abstract: The study aims to reveal the competitiveness and direction of trade of almonds from Afghanistan. The data was analysed for Nominal Protection Coefficient, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Markov chain analysis to understand the transition probability of almonds between different countries in the context of quantity. The secondary data for almonds was analyzed for the period of 2006-07 to 2020-21. The results indicated that the Afghanistan almonds were very responsive to the share of exports of the country. During the period considered under the study, lower nominal protection coefficient value for UAE was 0.76 followed by 0.79 and 0.82 India and Turkey respectively, which were less than one for the year 2022-23, indicating that UAE, India and Turkey had high export competitiveness than others. The range of RCA indices for Afghanistan was 43.95 to 670.71 followed by USA and Spain 6.83 to 8.43 and 4.64 to 7.86 respectively and the average value of RCA in the global market was highest for Afghanistan 178.61 followed by USA, Spain and Australia which were 7.81, 5.71 and 3.51 respectively. In case of transitional probability matrix for almonds exported quantity from Afghanistan during study period, Pakistan and India retained 96.93 and 31.00 per cent of their original share respectively. Where as other countries retained 32.21 per cent of their original share. Turkey lost 100.00 per cent of its share to others, UAE lost to India, Germany and Turkey in the proportion of 60.28, 23.02 and 16.70 per cent respectively, similarly Germany lost 70.21 per cent to India and 29.79 per cent to others, Iran and Iraq lost 100.00 and 83.67 per cent of their share to Pakistan and Turkey respectively, other countries lost 65.97 per cent of their share to India. The results revealed that Afghan almonds had more competitive advantages compared to others countries in global markets.